Mainz vs B. Leverkusen prediction and preview (10 Oct 2026)
Mainz–
B. LeverkusenMainz vs B. Leverkusen is on the Bundesliga schedule for Saturday 10 October 2026 (13:30 UTC). We have put together the model's probabilities and how both sides have performed in their recent matches.
Final result
Mainz 3 – 4 B. Leverkusen
The match finished Mainz 3-4 B. Leverkusen. Before kick-off the model's highest probability was for a win for Mainz (38%); that call did not come off. The model had given the actual result a 37% chance. You can follow the model's overall accuracy in the Performance section on the home page.
What the model says
The probabilities are close together: Mainz 38%, draw 25%, B. Leverkusen 37%. Small details could decide this one.
Recent form
Mainz: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 (W-D-W-L-W; most recent on the right), scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.2 per game.
B. Leverkusen: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 (D-L-W-D-W; most recent on the right), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.2 per game.
Mainz come in with the better recent form (10 points to 8). Their combined scoring average is 4.6 goals per game, which points to open matches lately.
Strength comparison
On the MatchScoreAI strength rating (Elo), Mainz sit at 1509 and B. Leverkusen at 1584. B. Leverkusen hold a small edge. Home advantage is added to the model separately.
Other probabilities
Over/Under 2.5, both teams to score, double chance and expected goals are available to members on the match page. Sign up for free to see the full analysis of this match.
Note: this article was generated automatically from MatchScoreAI's statistical model. Probabilities are not certain outcomes.