Arouca vs Estrela prediction and preview (11 Oct 2026)
Arouca–
EstrelaSunday 11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC: Arouca welcome Estrela in the Premier Lig. Below you will find the model's result probabilities, both teams' recent form and a strength comparison.
Final result
Arouca 1 – 0 Estrela
The match finished Arouca 1-0 Estrela. Before kick-off the model's highest probability was for a win for Arouca (67%); that call was correct. You can follow the model's overall accuracy in the Performance section on the home page.
What the model says
The model sees a clear edge for Arouca: a 67% chance of a Arouca win, against 13% for Estrela and 20% for a draw.
Recent form
Arouca: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 (L-W-D-L-D; most recent on the right), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 per game.
Estrela: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 (W-D-W-D-L; most recent on the right), scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game.
Estrela come in with the better recent form (8 points to 5). Their combined scoring average is 3.0 goals per game, which points to open matches lately.
Strength comparison
On the MatchScoreAI strength rating (Elo), Arouca sit at 1515 and Estrela at 1442. Arouca hold a small edge. Home advantage is added to the model separately.
Other probabilities
Over/Under 2.5, both teams to score, double chance and expected goals are available to members on the match page. Sign up for free to see the full analysis of this match.
Note: this article was generated automatically from MatchScoreAI's statistical model. Probabilities are not certain outcomes.